Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

超级厄尔尼诺持续增强，新预测显示冬季前将达到创纪录水平

Super El Niño continues to strengthen rapidly across the tropical Pacific, with new ocean and atmospheric data showing another acceleration in its development. The latest long-range forecasts have raised the projected peak again, pushing the 2026 event deeper into historic territory later this year. Behind this rapid growth is an unusually strong combination of westerly winds and subsurface ocean heat. Recent data shows record-level westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, while a powerful Kelvin Wave continues to spread eastward beneath the surface, providing additional warm water that powers the Super El Niño. In this specialized forecast article, I break down the latest ocean and atmospheric data behind the rapidly growing Super El Niño, including the record westerly wind anomalies and changing long-range forecasts. I also look at how the atmosphere is already responding, and what the latest Fall and Winter 2026/2027 predictions show for the United States, Canada, and Europe.

超级厄尔尼诺正在热带太平洋迅速增强，新的海洋和大气数据显示其发展再次加速。最新的长期预测再次提高了预计峰值，使 2026 年的事件在今年晚些时候更深入地进入历史纪录领域。这种快速增长的背后是西风与地下海洋热量异常强烈的结合。最近的数据显示，赤道太平洋地区出现了创纪录水平的西风异常，而一股强大的开尔文波继续在地下向东传播，提供了额外的暖水，为超级厄尔尼诺提供动力。在这篇专门的预测文章中，我拆解了快速成长的超级厄尔尼诺背后的最新海洋和大气数据，包括创纪录的西风异常和不断变化的长期预测。我还查看了大气层已经做出的反应，以及最新的 2026/2027 年秋季和冬季预测对美国、加拿大和欧洲显示的情况。

Super El Niño Dynamics: How Extreme Events Reshape Global Circulation

超级厄尔尼诺动力学：极端事件如何重塑全球环流

In the past few months, we have been tracking the growth of a Super El Niño event that is already a major global weather driver for 2026/2027. This Super El Niño is growing rapidly, and with the forecasts constantly adjusting its peak strength higher, we have to monitor its development on a regular basis. Currently, we have just entered a very strong El Niño phase, so below you can see the usual changes it brings to the atmospheric circulation. The upward and downward atmospheric motion and circulation in the tropical regions is called a Walker Cell, and is especially sensitive to strong ENSO events. Image by ESA.

在过去几个月里，我们一直在追踪一个超级厄尔尼诺事件的增长，它已经成为 2026/2027 年全球天气的主要驱动力。这个超级厄尔尼诺正在迅速增长，随着预测不断调高其峰值强度，我们必须定期监测其发展。目前，我们刚刚进入一个非常强的厄尔尼诺阶段，因此下方可以看到它给大气环流带来的通常变化。热带地区的上升和下降大气运动及环流被称为沃克环流，它对强烈的厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动（ENSO）事件特别敏感。图片由 ESA 提供。

In simple terms, the El Niño causes a pressure drop in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and a high-pressure zone over the western Pacific. This circulation change affects the global atmosphere and significantly influences pressure patterns, winds, rainfall, and the overall seasonal weather system. While a moderate event produces a mild wave pattern, a Super El Niño triggers a far more aggressive shift in the jet stream. The transition from a Moderate to an Extreme El Niño leads to a deeper Pacific trough and a stronger Canadian ridge, forming an atmospheric highway.

简单来说，厄尔尼诺导致热带太平洋中部和东部气压下降，并在西太平洋上空形成高压区。这种环流变化影响全球大气，显著影响气压模式、风、降雨以及整体季节性天气系统。虽然中等强度的事件会产生温和的波动模式，但超级厄尔尼诺会引发急流更剧烈的转变。从中等强度到极端厄尔尼诺的转变会导致更深的太平洋槽和更强的加拿大脊，形成一条大气高速公路。

This favors milder conditions in the north while driving an active storm track across the southern United States. The image above is from a study (linked below) that compared pressure anomalies at 5km (3.1miles) during Winter for moderate and strong El Niño events. Below is my combined analysis image of the last 4 Super El Niño events, showing ocean temperature anomalies. You can see a strong warm anomaly across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This close proximity to North America means direct and strong impacts on the seasonal weather in the United States and Canada in the Northern Hemisphere.

这有利于北部地区出现较温和的条件，同时驱动活跃的风暴路径穿越美国南部。上图来自一项研究（链接见下文），该研究比较了冬季中等和强厄尔尼诺事件在 5 公里（3.1 英里）高度的气压异常。下方是我对最近 4 次超级厄尔尼诺事件的综合分析图像，显示了海洋温度异常。你可以看到热带太平洋中部和东部存在强烈的暖异常。这种与北美大陆的接近意味着对北半球美国和加拿大季节性天气产生直接且强烈的影响。

El Niño events happen every few years, but Super events are rare, and usually occur once per decade or less. But how does an El Niño even reach a “Super” status? To keep it simple, a westerly wind burst can pile up warm water in the western Pacific. This creates a warm oceanic layer at depth known as a Kelvin Wave, raising ocean heat content in the western Pacific, spreading east, and rising to the surface. The latest analysis data now shows the exact same process unfolding rapidly, but with an energy signature that exceeds most (if not all) previous super events.

厄尔尼诺事件每几年发生一次，但超级事件很罕见，通常每十年发生一次或更少。但是厄尔尼诺是如何达到“超级”状态的呢？简单来说，西风爆发可以在西太平洋堆积暖水。这会在深处形成一个被称为开尔文波的暖海洋层，提高西太平洋的海洋热含量，向东传播并上升到表面。最新的分析数据现在显示完全相同的过程正在迅速展开，但其能量特征超过了大多数（如果不是全部）以前的超级事件。

Kelvin Wave: Subsurface Heat Drives Rapid El Niño Growth

开尔文波：地下热量驱动厄尔尼诺快速增长

The latest NOAA CRW ocean analysis below shows the ENSO area covered in substantial warm anomalies. You can see the peak warmth in the eastern parts reaching more than 5 degrees above normal over a large area, peaking at over 6 degrees anomaly. This is an exceptionally strong anomaly for this stage of development, indicating unusually rapid El Niño growth.

下方的最新 NOAA CRW 海洋分析显示，ENSO 区域覆盖着大量的暖异常。你可以看到东部地区的峰值温暖度在大范围内超过正常值 5 度以上，峰值异常超过 6 度。对于这一发展阶段来说，这是一个异常强烈的异常现象，表明厄尔尼诺增长异常迅速。